 |
Photo courtesy of Yonhap News |
[Alpha Biz= Paul Lee] South Korea’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have barely surpassed $36,000 in 2025, with Taiwan overtaking the country for the first time in 22 years amid a booming AI-driven economy.
According to the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, South Korea’s per capita GDP last year is projected at $36,107, down $116 (0.3%) from 2024. This marks the first decline in three years. Dollar-denominated nominal GDP also fell 0.5% to $1.866 trillion, reversing a three-year growth trend.
Real GDP is estimated to have grown just 1%, the slowest pace in five years since the pandemic-induced contraction of 2020 (-0.7%). Analysts cite sluggish private consumption and investment at the start of the year, coupled with global trade headwinds and a rising won-dollar exchange rate, which averaged 1,422.16 won in 2025, up 4.3% from 2024.
By contrast, Taiwan’s per capita GDP is estimated at nearly $38,748, surpassing South Korea by more than $2,000. The island nation’s economic outperformance is largely driven by its semiconductor industry. TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, along with ASE, UMC, and MediaTek, collectively account for the bulk of Taiwan’s exports, with AI-related products making up over 65% of total exports in 2024, according to Nomura.
Looking ahead, South Korea’s per capita GDP could recover to the $37,000 range this year if growth aligns with government forecasts and the won stabilizes, potentially reaching $38,000 under favorable exchange rate conditions. Taiwan, meanwhile, is expected to sustain robust growth, with major international banks forecasting real GDP expansion averaging 4% in 2026. JPMorgan and HSBC project growth exceeding 5%.
The divergence highlights structural differences: while South Korea faces currency pressures and slower growth, Taiwan benefits from high-tech export demand and a stable exchange rate, strengthening its economic position in East Asia.
알파경제 Paul Lee 특파원(hoondork1977@alphabiz.co.kr)
